भौतिक गणित

A Comparative Study of some Stochastic Models in the Context of COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Sudipta Basu*

In this article it is tried to work out on the mathematics of stochastic version of Von-Bertalanffy power law model to find an explicit solution and the MLEs of the model parameters are also worked out.Then this model is applied to the COVID infection data(First wave data) of South Korea after observing the nature of growth and some comparisons are made with stochastic Gompertz model and stochastic Logistic model in this context and the stochastic Von-Bertalanffy power law model performs better than the other two atleast here in this case. It is observed that most of the infected persons by this virus has experienced a mild to moderate respiratory problems and many of them has recovered under normal treatments, but for aged persons who were suffering from CVD (cardio vascular disease), severe respiratory problems, diabetes, cancer etc. i.e, persons with co-morbidity has faced serious trouble after getting infected(COVID positive)([13]).